Will it rain on my wedding day?
Nobody can forecast a date a year out. But thirty years of records can tell you the odds, the typical temperatures, and whether the week before or after has been kinder. Pick a place and a date.
How to read this
The rain chance is the share of years in which measurable rain fell on that calendar date and the three days either side, so a 35% figure means roughly one year in three saw some rain around your date. A "wet day" is a tenth of an inch or more, the kind of rain that ends an outdoor ceremony rather than dampening it. Temperatures are the average high and low for that time of year. All of it describes the past, and any given year can be the exception, so pair this with a real forecast in the final ten days.
Planning tips from the numbers
Look at the driest nearby week before you sign a venue contract, since shifting a Saturday by two weeks can cut the rain odds meaningfully in shoulder seasons. If the hot-day odds are high, move the ceremony later and budget for shade and water. If the cold-night odds are high, the reception tent needs heaters, not just walls. Rain insurance and cancellable tent rentals are cheap relative to the day, and this page tells you whether they are worth it.
Climatology from NOAA's 1991–2020 U.S. Climate Normals where available. Not a forecast.